The Honourable Siobhan Coady, Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance, today delivered the mid-year fiscal and economic update.

As highlighted in Budget 2024 – Transforming: Our Health. Our Economy. Our Province., the economy is expected to show significant growth in 2024:

• Real Gross Domestic Product is expected to grow by 3.3 per cent, driven by strong consumer spending.
• Employment is forecast to increase by 2.8 per cent, while the annual unemployment rate is forecast to be at 10.5 per cent – a near historical low.
• Retail sales are expected to remain strong, increasing by 5.1 per cent; up from 2.8 per cent expected at budget.
• Housing starts are up significantly through the first three quarters of the year, and home sales are also above last year’s levels through September.
• Population growth continued for the last 14 quarters. On an annual basis, Newfoundland and Labrador’s population increased by 6,340 persons from July 1, 2023 to July 1, 2024.
• Inflation has declined to 2.1 per cent over the January to September period, compared to 2.6 per cent nationally.
• Recent data shows inflation easing even further with growth of only 0.7 percent in September. This was the lowest monthly inflation rate since December 2020.
• Industries including mining, oil and gas, fisheries, and wind-hydrogen, the technology sector, and film and television are expected to contribute to continued economic growth.

As of mid-year, the provincial deficit remains low. The projected deficit for 2024-25 on $10.4 billion budget is $218 million, which is approximately two per cent of total revenues; and is a slight variance from the Budget 2024 projection of $152 million by $66 million which is 0.65 per cent of total revenues. Other highlights include:

• Revenues have decreased by $164 million from the Budget 2024 estimate. This is largely due a reduction in oil royalties because of lower production and a slightly lower oil price, partially offset by a lower exchange rate.
• Expenses are down $98 million from the Budget 2024 estimate due to the timing of program expenses, as well as gains associated with the province’s pension and other post-employment benefit liabilities.
• The average price of oil for 2024-25 has been revised to US$81 from the Budget 2024 projection of US$82. The Canada to United States exchange rate has been revised to 73.2 cents from the Budget 2024 forecast of 74.7 cents.
• As of 2024-25, total contributions to date to the Newfoundland and Labrador Future Fund will be approximately $354 million.

The 2024 Fiscal and Economic Update is available here.

A selection of recent budget investments is included in the backgrounder below.

Quote
“We are meeting expectations fiscally and exceeding expectations economically. Employment is up, household income is up, population is up, and inflation has eased. A stronger economy better supports the ability to provide services and programs to residents of the province. While there is still much work to be done, our success to date is a result of the hard work of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. We are delivering on our strategic plan for financial improvement which ensures prudent fiscal governance and responsible debt management. All with the vision of a stronger, smarter, self-sufficient, sustainable Newfoundland and Labrador.”
Honourable Siobhan Coady
Deputy Premier and Minister of Finance

-30-

Learn more
Budget 2024

Minister Coady Highlights Strength, Growth and Optimism in Economic Forecast

Provincial Economy Performing Well Year-to-Date; Stable Outlook Affirmed by Credit Rating Agencies

Government of Newfoundland and Labrador Places First Bond in European Market

How we’re helping with the cost of living

Follow us on X @GovNL and @FIN_GovNL

Like us on Facebook

BACKGROUNDER

Recent Budget Investments

• Record investments in health care, well-being of seniors, poverty reduction, housing; and record investments in infrastructure for health, education, and housing.
• No new taxes, tax increases or fee increases.
• Affordability measures such as:
  • Lowering the gas tax, reducing the cost of registering passenger vehicles, and providing free driver medicals for seniors 75 and over.
  • Home heating supplement and elimination of the retail sales tax on home insurance.
  • Increases to the income supplement, the seniors’ benefit and child benefit.
  • Lowering child care costs to $10 a day.
• For businesses:
  • Reducing the corporate income tax payable for 6,200 small businesses.
  • Increasing the exemption threshold for Health and Post-Secondary Education Tax for 1,250 businesses.
  • Introducing tax credits for manufacturing and processing, film and video, and green technology.